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Old 07-25-2008, 01:03 AM   #1
Aidan
Head Honcho
Posts: 159
Plays at: Cake Poker
Prefers: PLO
Default Quads but really a set

All right I was messing around and playing a little PLO50 10 handed table with 8 people being dealt cards.

Players in the hand:
Me:$135
MP1: $63
MP2: $20
MP3: $24
I'm on the big blind and get dealt 8s-8d-8s-7s and play has been checked around to me, so I check.

Middle position 1-2-3 call.

Flop hits Ad-7d-8c.

I bet out the flop for $2.50 and received a call from MP1.
MP2 raises to $8.00
MP3 calls $8.00

When the action came back to me I was quite confused what to do. I ended up folding...thinking I could be beat by AA right now....or I'll need to suck out because there is no way I'll be able to have my hand hold up against 3 other hands.

Do you think I should make the call or is my dump all right?

On the turn MP2 goes all in for $11 with a 9 of spades hitting and MP3 folds....
 
Old 07-25-2008, 03:21 AM   #2
DrSliq
Pretentious Fuck
Posts: 20
Plays at: Your sister's house.
Prefers: Mixed
Default Re: Quads but really a set

I don't mind the fold here at all. You've got no real redraw, could be beat AA already but are more likely to be up against a wrap and/or flush draw. With a decent stacked MP1 still to act behind you, I think the fold is fine. Had it been just you and the short stacks, I'd be willing to put them in and see what happens, but considering this is a hand you'd gladly have folded preflop if given the chance, getting away cheap is fine.
 
Old 07-25-2008, 03:24 AM   #3
Jim
Administrator
Posts: 318
Plays at: PokerStars
Prefers: $8/$16 O.E
Default Re: Quads but really a set

Not much of a PLO player so take my advice with a grain of salt here.. This is a spot where I'd push without the redraw.

If players limp with AA frequently in this game then I change my mind, but in my limited experience with lower limit PLO 70%+ raise AA.
MP1 probably does no have AA because he wouldn't flat your $2.50 call letting others into the pot here.

MP3 unlikely has AA either so your worried about just MP2 or just a strange risky play.

MP2 and MP3 don't have all that many chips and if you rereaise MP1 is probably folding.

I got for it here.

If it was bottom set I fold, but here I think AA is unlikely and MP2 is the only player posibly holding it - but seeing as no raise before the flop its unlikely. In fact everything in this hand so far suggest there is no AA. Also add the factor you might be up against a wrap and a semi wrap or w/e with them sharing blocker.

Anyways I run it - If MP2 and MP3 are deeper I'm more prone to let it go.

Last edited by Jim; 07-25-2008 at 03:26 AM.
 
Old 07-25-2008, 03:45 AM   #4
DrSliq
Pretentious Fuck
Posts: 20
Plays at: Your sister's house.
Prefers: Mixed
Default Re: Quads but really a set

So Jim and I ran the numbers on a few possible scenerios and it looks like you're a favorite in most situations. You're only really a dog against a total wrap and a flush draw with A7 or AA..I still don't mind the fold, though. I hate being forced to see the flop with these hands and hitting them.
 
Old 07-25-2008, 03:57 AM   #5
Jim
Administrator
Posts: 318
Plays at: PokerStars
Prefers: $8/$16 O.E
Default Re: Quads but really a set

I ran the numbers a lot and then screwed up my notes. I'm totally spent at the moment, but I think your going to be over 33% MOST of the time, 37% on average, and you'll also be 33% often enough.

If you're not up against AA the your next night mare situation your 23% if up against A7 (you have a seven which helps), a wrap with no shared cards / blocker and a flush draw with only one player having exactly 2 diamonds.

The above situation is unlikely for starters but becomes SUPER unlikely based on MP1 calling as he must have some sort of common draw or hand as the other two players.

There are also a lot of situations where you'll be even more ahead

I can almost side the argument both ways though - so the fold is not that bad.. but added info we have - I push no question here.

When I'm less spent perhaps I'll rebuild my notes here that I messed all up.
 
Old 07-25-2008, 04:24 AM   #6
Aidan
Head Honcho
Posts: 159
Plays at: Cake Poker
Prefers: PLO
Default Re: Quads but really a set

Thanks for the comments.

The only reason I didn't push here is because I figured each other player is going to call allin since they are so short.... But I bet if you run this scenario over a long period of time I might be a small winner?
 
Old 08-01-2008, 11:41 PM   #7
деньги
Journeyman
Posts: 10
Plays at: Betfair Poker
Prefers: PLO
Default Re: Quads but really a set

in a higher limit game this is easy fold
 
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