NL Omaha Huge Bluff - Suicide or Good Play?

I’m for sure a losing Omaha Hi player just because I’ve never really played it. A couple weeks ago I was at a local underground club, playing $1/$2 No Limit Dealers Choice and Omaha was one of the games. This game particular game is nuts because there is no max buy-in and its not uncommon for guys to buy in with $500 lose it, reload again etc. I’ve seen as much as $40K on one of these tables in the past but tonight it wasn’t quite that much but it was still high maybe $11K. I’m curious if a play I made was totally insane.

I bought in for $400 on this table and doubled up quickly in Holdem flopping a set 7’s against kings, and then a few hands later I picked up kings myself and pushed all in with a couple hundred in the pot and it was folded to me. So I’ve only been at this table 20 minutes, we’re playing 11 handed btw, and I’ve got about $1050. I’m not a regular anymore but there are 4 others at the table I played with for years – one I know better than anyone from local tournament play when we both ran into each other at dozen of final tables different places the past 10 years. I ended up in an interesting Omaha hand with him.

Its been a couple weeks so this is just a rough idea of how the action worked.

UTG raises to T. Just about every player at the table calls there might have been one or two people that folded I’m in the BB with 6d 7c Tc Jd and also call.

The flop comes: 7d 8d 9d

I check, Billy (the player I know well) bets $50 folds to the button who calls, folds to me and I call. The turn is a baby and I bet $50 Billy raises to $200 – Button folds and I raise to $500 – I believe leaving myself a little less than that behind. Billy had a couple grand on table so has me covered.

My thinking here is that I have the straight flush blockers so its not possible that Billy has the nuts, and he knows that I know he’s not firing into a pot with 6 or 7 still to act weak on the flop, and I’ve played the hand weak and suddenly when its down to just the two of us I’m playing strong back at him.

He gets noticeably sick as he tanks, he says well I obviously have the nut flush and he is like man… starting at his cards.. keeps saying no idea how I can lay this down.. then he asks me… you wouldn’t make this move with the 5 T would you, thinks for a while later and then calls my hand asking if I would do this with 6 J.. he thinks forever and says.. you must have it and mucks 99AdKd for top set and the nut flush face up. I think for a minute if I should show him, but then just say wow monster laydown and toss my cards into muck and scoop the pot.

He then goes on about how I didn’t have it, but the rest of the table starts chatting about, if he pulled off a bluff in that spot he would of showed it, and he said you’re probably right, and I said.. Billy is just steaming he’ll know when he gets home tonight that I obviously had it.. total lie but w/e.

I haven’t thought to much about this hand, but it was an intense feeling at the time making a play like that. I started thinking last night about this hand whether it was a good play or not or I was just nuts and got lucky that he mucked such a strong hand.

Any thoughts from Omaha players?

wow... I honestly can't believe he laid that down. I dunno if I could ever get away from that. Sick read sir, and sicker play.

The night this hand happened, I remember thinking I need to get feedback on that one from someone, but later that night I was thinking if I was him I would of folded there too, then I kind of forgot about the hand for a while.

I'm not sure now that feedback will help much because obviously this play would not have worked against many people. Anyways, I guess this was just situational and a ten year image got me $260 off him as well as the rest of the $ in the pot, because he knew several things:

1) No way I was raising with just a King high flush
2) He knew that I knew he had the nut flush.
3) He also knew that if there was any player on the table I did not want to mess around with it was him.

The things I didn't know though were:

1) He had top set to go with it, wow.
2) That he would be smart enough to call out my hand. I was sweating bullets inside when he asked you wouldn't do this with 5T would you, then a few minutes later said.. ugh do you have the Q6. man that was intense because he was smart enough to really think through the hand.

I bit my lip so hard in order not to smile when he folded, when I though about if there was any value in a show. It only took me like 20 seconds to decide that there was no as revealing that move could only hurt in the long run

Anyways can honestly say while it was not the biggest pot I've ever played in my life it was by far the most intense.

I think it was a horrible laydown by him, unless he has an absolutely sick read on your game (and happened to get this one wrong)

Originally Posted by Barton

I think it was a horrible laydown by him, unless he has an absolutely sick read on your game (and happened to get this one wrong)

Actually I guess the better question actually is, what do you do if you're him in this spot. What else could I possibly have but a straight flush or air here? He knows for absolute certain that I know he has an ace high flush, and here I am raising him anyways. Rethinking the hand I check, he's the one betting, I am last to call. I then slow lead on the turn and now when its just me and him my re-re-raise looks as its suppose to look as "I know you have the ace high flush and hope you'll pay off my straight flush". Also keep in mind 9 or ten people seen this flop and and any of them who held
5d 6d, 6d Td or Td Jd had him beat and would still be in the hand..

The bet seemed natural to me because I had the cards needed to make the three hands that beat him, and I couldn't see him putting $700 or $800 more in the pot with 4th nut. He is not a tight player he plays a lot of pots and takes a lot of stabs but the guy plays for a living.. when I made the bet I was more certain enough that my $450 more going into the pot was going to win the $500 in the pot more than half the time..

I'm open to being convinced I'm wrong here, but I guess now I realize I probably should of asked the question in reverse.. what do you do in his shoes?

Personally with all the knowns - I think I fold, but I haven't played the hand from his side so I'm not entirely sure.

Edit: Just to add: both of us consider each other the toughest opponent at the table, and we both know each other feels the same way - we're not going to get into a lot of pots with each other on purpose. History wise we were both fixed limit stud players back in the day and that was our only cash game experience together. We've been in the same NL Texas Holdem tournament a 100+ times and been at at least a dozen final tables together. In the long run I think he's gotten the better of me a few more times than I have him but most of them were tough beats like I can recall a set over set, a top and bottom pair short handed vs top 2, and a top 2 vs a bottom set heads up. I also played him in a 2 hour long heads up match which was unheard of really for those stakes and he said to me "I never ever made deals, but this is crazy lets chop and go home". So anyways my point is he knows me really well and we have a long history together, we're not friends or anything though but we're not unfriendly either.

You wouldnt make a play like this with set plus Q flush? I haven't played much Omaha hi only, I can't see laying this down? You could even have set + Q flush + gut to str8 flush.

See I haven't played much Omaha Hi Only either in fact this was my first time ever playing it in a cash game.

I knew there was something I wanted to get feedback on in this hand, but it took me till after posting it to realize it was playing the hand from his perspective is where I could learn the most.

I don't play Omaha enough to know whether my bet was insane or not but it really seemed like I was betting $450 to win $500 and I felt the odds were like 70% my bet would force him to fold.. maybe I'm way off but my intention the entire time was get heads up with him and steal the pot. I slow lead hoping he raised and the button folded which is what happened.. the hand worked out perfect for me. For him... I'm not so sure what I do in his spot.

He plays a LOT of $50-$200 buyins. My guess is he bought in to this table with $500 ish and was up to $2K ish when I got there and that is decent money to him. $2K at a table is probably well out of his poker bankroll which I'de guess is $15K ish - but again thats a total guess.

Edit:

Originally Posted by Barton

You wouldnt make a play like this with set plus Q flush? I haven't played much Omaha hi only, I can't see laying this down? You could even have set + Q flush + gut to str8 flush.

I'm pretty sure he knows I know he at least has an ace high flush.. I don't know Omaha Hi but I can't see playing a Q high flush with a set against a straight flush flop where 9 or 10 players saw the flop very hard.

Aidan plays a lot of Omaha cash games I think, so looking forward to his thoughts when he reads this.

This is a very very interesting hand and is more complicated because both of you guys are very deep stacks and know each other.

I can't even decide if I like his fold or not, I think it would have been close to a coin flip for me if I proceed with the hand or fold. Either decision for him is good, but I'd probably lean more on the calling side with the intention to call any bet on the river.

What I do know is that I dislike Jim's call on the flop. I find with these types of dealers choice games there is no reason to get creative. There is constant action, just wait for your hand and you'll get paid.

Originally Posted by Aidan

What I do know is that I dislike Jim's call on the flop. I find with these types of dealers choice games there is no reason to get creative. There is constant action, just wait for your hand and you'll get paid.

This isn't a typical low limit dealers choice game though - It is really not uncommon for $40K to be on table - I've seen guys add $1-$5K to table as other players get deep. There is no max buy in.

This night there was a lot less money on table, but this also had to do with the quality of player. A lot of gangster guetto type ballers come to this place and blow a bunch of cash gambling - with none of them being around there were 11 poker players kind of passing time. ONLY reason i even sat in this game and didn't head right home when I seen the quality of games going was that my power had been out for 3 hours (bad thunderstorm) and the entire city was out - no traffic lights not street lights etc and I figured the chances with it turning midnight that they fix it before morning were slim and I needed something to do. (this place is a town over where they had power)

When I seen the flop I recognized right away no player could make the nuts2nd nut or 3rd nut so how might I build a pot here and take it. Like I did not even question it at time it just seemed natural.

I guess I'm just really suprised here you guys lean call. I think if I was sitting in his seat I would feel sick but need to fold - but I see it at the VERY best being 50/50. There are only two posibile things I have - Both blockers or one of three positible staight flushes - I can't see him putting $800 more in to find out - and him assuming the chances I am making play with blockers or giving to much credit to that seems unreasonable to me. I've represented the staight flush to perfection - he needs let it go, no?

Initially, I didn't like either of your plays.. however, as I think it through knowing the both of you fairly well and the history you have.. I have to say that it's a brilliant play on your part and a tough but logical laydown on billy's.

let's examine the facts:
after your raise, the pot stands at $1,000..Billy is being layed 3 to 1 right now and if the rest of your stack is going in he's looking at 1.875 to 1..

Billy knows that you're no donk who's making this play with the king high flush or any set
He knows that you know he has the ace high flush at the very least..
The only hands you can make this play with are one of 3 straight flush combo's or Jd 6d or Td 5d
considering what he actually has is the worst possible hand that you can put him on from his perspective, his only choice is to fold.

let's assume that you're making this play with the blockers 100% of the time you're given the opportunity..If he decides to play, 40% of the time he's going to win $1,000..60% of the time he's going to lose 800..need I say more?

Just to be clear about things, this is a very special circumstance and would be a terrible play against anyone whom you don't know VERY well and who doesn't know you just as well. Even in those situations, the person you're making this play against is going to have to be a solid player who isn't inclined to take risks and has shown themselves capable of making a tough laydown.

This hand is still bugging me. Suppose the case that Billy elects to just call, assuming that if you do hold the blockers you're not going to put any more money in the pot. Then the case becomes 40% of the time he'll win 1k and 60% of the time he'll lose 300.

This is where things get a little tricky. I'm inclined to argue that the both of you should decide whether you're going to commit to the hand or not. So, if he just calls..you've gotta bite the bullet and throw that last 550 in on the river and continue to represent the straight flush. Here's why: You can be absolutely certain that he does not hold the nuts.. However, in order for him to be equally as certain that you aren't holding the best hand, he would have to be holding both the Td and the 5d along with the Ad you already know he has. I think we can rule that possiblity out for a number of reasons. For one, he seems to be genuinely faced with a tough decision.. given that he's a poker player and not an oscar winning actor, I'd say it's safe to assume that he isn't putting on a show. The probability of this holding is also ridiculously small, although at 5am I don't feel like calculating the exact odds. Given that he asked if you'd make the play with the 10d 5d or Jd 6d, one could reasonable conclude that he holds neither of these cards. If you accept that, then there's no reason for you not to put the rest of the money in on the river.

I've discussed this hand with so many people and they all say bad fold by Billy initially say my play was neutral EV at best and most likely -ev, but honestly I'm pretty sure they're wrong.

I play poker pretty naturally and only tank when I really need to rethink the action - it took me until recently to realize there was a high probability the button had the ten of diamonds - I'm glad Billy didn't pick up on this, I think i probably did subconsciously along the way - because I felt pretty sure Billy had none of the blockers.

In any case, I'm fairly certain if I'm in his spot I feel sick but fold here.

Its an interesting hand though, one that I've enjoyed discussing more than any resent hand.